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What if Texas seceded? GOP wouldn’t allow it anytime soon

By - March 11, 2022

Some Texas state lawmakers are considering a Brexit-style departure from the United States due to the presumed impending doom and loss of individual liberties that awaits under the new Biden Administration.

In fact, a secession bill will likely be voted on by the Texas legislature this year.

“Just like so much of Trumpian America, secession in places like Texas is rooted in a combination of nativism, xenophobia, and white racial grievance,” said NBC columnist Casey Michel.

“Just like the Confederates before them, this modern secessionist ethos is rooted at least in large part in maintaining white supremacy and authoritarian governance, regardless of the costs.”

What if Texas seceded? While it may sound nice on the surface to a few Texas conservatives, it won’t happen anytime soon for several reasons.

For purposes of simplicity, we’ll explore why the Republican Party, alone, would serve as Texit’s biggest obstacle.

The Republican Party, already diminishing in relevance, is far too dependent on Texas in U.S. national politics.

At this moment, Texas Republican lawmakers account for a whopping 22 (or 10.3 percent) of the 212 GOP seats in the U.S. House.

If Texas became a separate nation, the U.S. House of Representatives would lose 38 seats
with 23-24 being GOP-controlled. The net 14-15 seat loss for Republicans would vastly reduce their chances of controlling the chamber going forward.

Second, two Republican Senate seats would be sacrificed as well. Today, the Senate is split 50-50. Without Texas, left leaners would enjoy a 50-48 advantage and their odds of maintaining future control of Congress’s upper chamber would increase.

And third, any chances for the U.S. to elect a Republican president again would be vastly diminished without Texas’ 38 electoral votes so don’t expect GOP powerbrokers throughout the rest of the U.S. to support the Texit initiative.

George W. Bush certainly couldn’t have won the presidency in 2000 and 2004 without Texas while GOP candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney wouldn’t have been competitive in 2008 and 2012 without carrying The Lonestar State.

… That’s how dependent Republicans are on Texas.

Without Texas, the U.S. wouldn’t immediately turn into Norway or Sweden but hardcore liberals outside the state would certainly be giddy about the political ramifications for a post-Texit scenario.

There are additional reasons Texit won’t secede but the movement won’t get far enough to delve into them anytime soon on the grounds stated above.

What if Texas seceded? It won’t happen soon because Republicans outside the state would fight it tooth and nail.


Tags: texit, u.s. politics