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2024 Presidential Race: Why Wisconsin could fall into Republican hands

By Lee Cleveland - February 25, 2023

It’s no surprise the 2024 Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, WI, a swing state that could prove vital in a close presidential election.

In fact, Wisconsin might be the most swingy state in the country for presidential elections. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump carried the state by 0.77 percent (22,748 votes) before losing the state to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 by just 0.63 percent (20,682 votes).

The attention Republicans will give to Wisconsin via its convention will likely give its candidate a boost there. How much, we don’t know. However, given Biden’s thin margin of victory there in 2020 it could be enough to carry the state.

The Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, has carried the last two states that hosted the RNC in that election year.

  • 2016 – Quicken Loans Arena; Cleveland, Ohio
  • 2020 – Charlotte Convention Center; Charlotte, North Carolina (Day 1)

More significantly, Trump massively flipped Ohio, winning that state by eight percentage points after Democrat Barack Obama won there by three just four years prior.


Or, was Ohio already leaning red?

Trump also managed to hold on to North Carolina in 2020, a close swing state many projected would turn blue.

Don’t expect Republicans to move the needle in Wisconsin as much as they did in Ohio. Still, Democrat strategists should be wary about the possibility of losing the Badger state’s 10 electoral votes in 2024.

Perhaps Democrats should divert much of their presidential campaign funding from Wisconsin and cede the state’s 10 electoral votes while more aggressively pursuing North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes. In 2020, Biden lost to Trump in the Tarheel state by just 1.34 percent (75,000 votes).

Atlanta (Georgia), Chicago (Illinois), Houston (Texas), and New York City (New York) are the finalists to hold the 2024 Democratic National Convention.

Expect Democrats to choose Atlanta as they’ll look to secure red/purple state Georgia again and strengthen their brand among southerners.