GA Senate race polls: Why Warnock is looking better in runoff

By Lee Cleveland - December 2, 2022

With just five days before the Georgia Senate runoff between incumbent Raphael Warnock and challenger Herschel Walker, things are still close but consistent.

Warnock leads by 2 to 4 percentage points in each of the last four polls by reputable pollsters.

Current Polling: Georgia Senate Runoff

Based on the above polls, Warnock looks poised to win even though the spreads are within the margin of error.

Why?

Consider this:
Warnock, in last month’s general election, finished about a percentage point ahead of Walker despite losing in 4 of the 5 latest polls leading up to Election Night.

Bad news for Herschel.

Previous Polling: Georgia Senate General Election

Result:
Raphael Warnock 49.4%
Herschel Walker 48.5%
Chase Oliver 2.1%

Given Walker didn’t finish ahead last month when he was projected to, a victory for him in the run-off is even more unlikely now that he’s projected to lose.

Granted, all of the pollsters in both of the above scenarios are different so we don’t have apples-to-apples comparisons. However, the pollster Hill/Emerson, about 8 or 9 days prior to the general election, had Warnock ahead by 2, the same as their poll published last week.

We previously predicted Sen. Warnock would defeat Walker by 2 percentage points in the general election and are sticking to the same forecast in the runoff. (Why Warnock has the advantage over Walker in the runoff)

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Tags: 2022 Midterm Elections, GA senate Race